Market Liquidity, Exchange Rate Pass-through, and Inflation Dynamics in China

This paper examines the effects of market liquidity and exchange rate pass-through on domestic inflation in China from 1998 to 2008 using both univariate and multivariate dynamic models. We find the following: (1) market liquidity in China has significantly positive effects on inflation, (2) the pass-through effect of exchange rates is limited to CPI. (3) the shock to growth rate of real GDP drives domestic inflation significantly, (4) external shocks contribute little to the volatility of inflation, and (5) China s central bank should keep the growth rate of M2 as the main monetary policy instrument in inflation management.