A Study of Causal Order: Party Identification and Attitude toward the Independence/Unification Issue in Taiwan

The purpose of this study is to examine the causal relationship between party identification and individual attitude toward the independence/unification issue in Taiwan. This study assumes that in Taiwan, an individual's party identification and his/her attitude toward independence/unification can affect each other. By using the panel survey data of Taiwan's Election and Democratization Study (TEDS) and the multinomial logit model, this study confirms that there is mutual causation between these two, although it is limited to the relationship between support for Taiwan independence and identification with the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP). No significant causal relationship is found between identification with the Kuomintang (KMT) and attitude toward the independence/unification issue. In short, this study indicates that endogeneity is a potential risk in previous studies and helps clarify the causal relationship between people's party identification and their attitude toward the independence/unification issue in Taiwan.