高等教育失業率、經濟成長率、高等教育畢業生成長率之互動關係研究：以1991~2014年臺灣地區為例

The Study of Interaction Relationship of the Unemployment Rate of Higher Education Graduates, Economic Growth Rate, and Increased Ratio of Graduate Students in Taiwan from 1991~2014

本研究主要運用教育部及主計處歷年資料，以時間序列共整合分析，探討臺灣1991~2014年高等教育失業率、經濟成長率、高等教育畢業生成長率三者間互動之因果關係。在高等教育失業率上，其預測誤差變異主要來自本身，達98.32%。在經濟成長率上，其預測誤差變異，來自高等教育畢業生成長率及失業率分別為19.49%與45.65%，且其與高等教育畢業生成率有因果關係。另外，在短期上，兩者皆為負向衝擊，但長期而言，皆為正向衝擊。在高等教育畢業生成長率，其預測誤差變異主要來自於本身達78.13%，少部份來自於經濟成長率為21.70%，而不論長期或短期，經濟成長率對其有負向衝擊，而失業率則對其無衝擊。本研究根據對過去資料的分析，對未來大學減量進行預測及研究方法上的建議。

This study researches the causality among the unemployment rate of higher education graduates, economic growth rate, and the increased ratio of graduate students in Taiwan. A time series analysis was conducted on the data from the Ministry of Education Republic of China (Taiwan) and the Directorate-General of Budget, Accounting and Statistics. The results are as follows. About 98.32% self-explanatory effect of the unemployment rate of higher education graduates is found. The forecast error of economic growth rate comes from the growth rate of graduates and graduate unemployment rate, which are 19.49% and 45.65%, respectively. There is causality between economic growth rate and increased ratio of graduate students. In the short-term, they have a negative impulse response on economic growth rate, but the effect of positive for long-term. About 78.13% self-explanatory effect of increased ratio of graduate students can be found at, and the rest is explained by economic growth rate. Whether it is a short-term or long-term trend, economic growth rate has negative influence on increased ratio of graduate students. Research method and policy to reduce universities can be suggested according to previous data analysis of this study.