主辦運動賽會是利多還是利空？以貝氏理論觀點探討

Profit or Loss? An analysis of sport event impact base on Bayesian Theory Approach

緒論：關於運動賽會的影響評估，有從經濟、財務成本面或社會文化等不同層面，進行分析與瞭解。最常被使用的影響分析，是透過經濟影響評估與投入產出模型來瞭解運動賽會的正負向影響。本研究主要目的是應用貝氏理論的概念探討現有運動賽會經濟效益；藉此將運動賽會本身的經濟價值與運動賽會在整體經濟發展環境下，所產生的經濟價值加以區隔，讓運動賽會所能為當地創造的經濟效益層次更加清晰。方法：本研究以三個運動賽會為例，透過貝氏理論概念結合時間序列預測ARIMA模型計算各運動賽會經濟影響之權重值，並針對經濟效益數據加權調整運動賽會最原始之經濟效益價值。結果：根據各運動賽會舉辦國家或是當地的GDP數據求出整體經濟發展趨勢權重值，並試算各運動賽會的經濟效益原始價值。結論：運動賽會的經濟效益近年來越來越受到重視；如何能將運動賽會在經濟效益上的本質以及釐清整體經濟環境交互作用影響之下所產生的經濟效益，期盼讓未來運動賽會的經濟效益評估，有更具體客觀的參考依據。

Introduction: Most researches of impact evaluation related to sport event have been realized and analyzed based on several fields such as economics, financial cost and society. The popular methodology to evaluate the positive or negative impact of sport event is via economic impact analysis and Input-Output analysis. This study focus on how we can use Bayesian theory in indicators of economic impact in sport event. Attempt to segment the economic value of sport event and the value of sport event under globe economy in order to make the value of sport event more precisely. Methods: First, we collect three cases about applying economic impact analysis in sport event. Second, based on Bayesian theory, we use time series methodology (ARIMA) to calculate the weight parameter of each sport event, and then we will recalculate the economic value (expenditure) of each sport event. Results: According to the historical data about GDP of each host city or country, we found the weight parameter of each host city or country and adjusted the economic value of each sport event. Conclusion: More and more important in how to evaluate the economic value of sport event meaningful in recently year, how can we precisely evaluate the net value about sport event exclude the influence of global economy clearly, and provide more precisely, specifically and objectively information of economic impact in sport event for the country or city plan to host the sport event and economic strategy making in the future.