過去國際及國內針對兩岸直航對兩岸衝擊評估之研究，多仰賴全球貿易分析(GTAP)多國可計算一般均衡(CGE)模型，惟目前最新GTAP第八版資料庫僅有57個產業(或產品)部門，致分類太過加總，加以缺乏區域間投入產出資料。因此，本文以兩岸個別投入產出表及進出口資料，重新編算部門分類較細的2006年96部門兩岸投入產出連結表，並藉由參考外界推估及統計直航後可以節省的運輸成本及運量增加，評估開放兩岸直通後對經濟及產業可能影響。由於過去相關研究多為實證模擬結果，並非調查統計數據。因此，本文依據陳麗瑛(2010)及交通部統計處(2011)實際調查兩岸直航後節省之運費成本及客運、貨運量統計資料變化，設計八種不同的模擬情境，探討在不同模擬情境下，對整體經濟及產業可能造成衝擊。本文實證結果顯示，直航後海空客運成本減少及運量成長效果大於海空貨運成本減少及運量成長效果，且對中國經濟影響效果高於台灣。

In literature, most studies utilize the CGE model and GTAP database to evaluate the economic impacts of cross strait direct transportation link. However, there are only 57 sectors in GTAP 8 database without inter-regional input output data. In this study, we construct the cross strait 96 sectors Inter-Country Input-Output table based on Taiwan and China Input-Output tables and trade statistics between Taiwan and China. Based on the cost saving data and the increases of trade volumes after cross strait transportation link, we investigate the impacts of cross strait direct transportation link on regional economic and industrial development. In this paper, we design eight simulate circumstances and tries to evaluate the impacts of cross strait direct transportation link based on Chen (2010) and the Ministry of Transportation and Statistics epartment (2011) survey data. The empirical results indicate that the effect of cost saving and growth effect in passenger transportation is larger than the freight effect. Furthermore, the impacts on China are larger than Taiwan’s impacts.