回顧型投票：1997年桃園縣長補選的回顧   全文下載

Retrospective Voting: The Case of Taoyuan Magistrate By-Election in 1997

回顧型投票是選民投票選擇的一種模式，但在臺灣的選民行為研究中較少被注意。桃園縣選民在1997 年縣長補選中表現的就是一種典型的回顧型投票。本研究利用國立政治大學選舉研究中心在該次補選前後的電話訪問資料，分析選民對桃園縣政滿意與不滿意意見與其投票意向的關聯。在考量選民的政黨認同及其對候選人特質評價的影響後，本研究發現桃園縣選民對縣政的不滿意是影響此次補選結果的關鍵因素。

Electoral behavior studies in Taiwan pay little attention to a type of voting behavior, i.e. retrospective voting. The by-election for the magistrate of Taoyuan County in 1997 was a typical case of retrospective voting. In this study telephone survey data collected by the Election Study Center of the National Chengchi University is analyzed to examine the correspondence between voters’ dissatisfaction against county government’s performance and voters’ choices. The findings support the hypothesis of this study. After taking into account the voters’ party identification and their evaluation of candidates’ personal characteristics the voters dissatisfaction is a key factor to the outcome of this by-election.