台灣產業關聯效果與關鍵產業之衡量

A Study of Linkage Effect and Measurement of Key Sectors on Taiwan

隨著國內產業結構的調整，帶動各產業的向前及向後關聯程度產生變動，其中關鍵產業（key sector）的發展尤其受到重視，因此，以客觀且合適方法衡量關鍵產業實屬必要。至於何謂關鍵產業（key sector）？最早提出的概念為Rasmussen（1956）及Hirschman（1958）所發展之感應度及影響度方法，惟早期方法並未涉及不同產業間的交互影響，為改進Rasmussen（1956）及Hirschman（1958）缺點，根據Sonis et al.（2000）進行最小資訊分解，運用向前向後關聯效果概念，計算出乘數積矩陣（multiplier product matrix；矩陣T1），該矩陣在整個經濟體系中具有最小資訊（minimum information）的特性，可以藉此繪製經濟地貌，且可解釋當一階投入係數改變時，對各產業所造成的影響強度。此外，其再以新的角度，藉由產業投入之協同互動強度矩陣（synergetic interactions intensitymatrix；矩陣T2）進一步探討產業間之交互作用，因其隱含產業之替代能力或創新效果，加以衡量產業間之交互作用強度。據此，本文根據以上兩步驟篩選出關鍵產業後，再以Bhowmik（2003）總支援效果方法估計關鍵產業對其他產業之支援效果。同時，本文以1996年、1999年、2001年及2004年台灣產業關聯表資料進行實證結果發現，鋼鐵、其他金屬、化工原料及電子零組件與加工食品等部門為近年來最具關鍵性之產業，紡織、紙、紙製品及印刷出版業與其他化學製品部門則漸趨沒落。

Along with the Taiwan industry structure adjustment, leads forward and backward linkage effect of various industries changed, in which the development of key sectors especially receive more attention, therefore it is necessary to use appropriate and objective method measuring key sectors. This article discuss key sector by the input-output analysis method, besides, according to Minimum Information Decomposition of the Leontief Inverse method of Sonis et al. (2000), which separate the information of regional economic structure into two parts. The first part is Multiplier Product Matrix (matrix T1), which extract the minimum information included in the row and column multipliers, the second part is Synergetic Interactions Intensity Matrix (matrix T2). Multiplier Product Matrix can estimate forward and backward linkage but also exhibit the economic landscape. Then discuss the industrial input substitution and innovation ability by Synergetic Interactions Intensity Matrix, measuring the synergetic intensity between industries. After the above two steps to filter out key sectors, calculate the support effect to other industries of key sectors by Total Support Effect method of Bhowmik (2003). Synthesizes the 1996-2004 year Taiwan input-output table, we discover that steel and iron, other metal, industrial chemicals and electronic spare part and processing food sector are the most important sectors in recent years, the status of textile, paper, paper product and printing publishing and other chemical product sectors are gradually declining.