臺灣發行經濟消費券之動態分析及總體經濟行為模擬

The Dynamics Analysis and Simulation of the Macro Economic Behavior of Taiwan’s Invigorating Economy Consumption Voucher

面臨嚴峻全球經濟不景氣下，各國家莫不採取各種經濟政策企圖使其景氣回溫。本文使用系統動力學從動態觀點探討臺灣發行限期使用消費券，將如何影響總體經濟行為？研究模擬結果顯示：第一，當最高邊際消費傾向(MPC = 0.3)搭配最低消費券替代率(SR = 0.6741)時，將產生最大的乘數效果為0.6830及國內生產毛額。第二，當消費券代替率增加1%時，乘數效果將下降0.44%。第三，估計消費券對第一、二、三季及前三季累積民間消費支出的貢獻分別介於2.13-2.55、0.25-0.30、0.19-0.22與0.86-1.02百分點間；而對第一、二、三季及前三季GDP的貢獻分別介於1.36-1.63、0.15-0.18、0.11-0.13與0.51-0.61百分點間。第四，當政府採取固定預算政策時，消費券替代率的增加，縱然使政府支出被排擠，亦不致導致經濟惡化，再者，私人投資將不致為消費券的增加所排擠。最後，當政府不採取固定預算政策時，模擬結果顯示：擴大消費券發行，將不會排擠政府支出。本研究之政策意涵如下：發行消費券將產生乘數效果以刺激有效需求，為低迷的臺灣景氣帶來效益。發行消費券可能產生的排擠效果可予以忽略，同時發行消費券政策可被視為刺激經濟的有效方法。

Given the severe global economic downturn, countries are using a variety of possible economic policies to try to help their economies recover. This study adopts system dynamics from the dynamic perspective to investigate how Taiwan’s decision to issue time-limited consumption vouchers will influence macro economical behaviors. The simulation led to following primary results. First, in regard to the highest marginal propensity to consume (MPC = 0.3) and the lowest substitution rate of consumption (SR = 0.6741), the distribution of the consumption voucher will generate the biggest multiplier coefficient (0.6830) and Y (GDP). Second, as SR increases by 1%, the multiplier effect decreases by 0.44%. Third, the contribution percentages of consumption vouchers on the first, second, third, and the accumulated total of these three quarters of private consumption in 2009 ranged from 2.13-2.55, 0.25-0.30, 0.19-0.22, and 0.86-1.02 of a percentage, respectively. Meanwhile, the contribution percentage of consumption vouchers in the first, second, third and the accumulated total of these three quarters of GDP in 2009 ranged from 1.36-1.63, 0.15-0.18, 0.11-0.13, and 0.51-0.61 of a percentage, respectively. Fourth, when the government adopts a constant budget policy, the increased distribution of consumption vouchers will not deteriorate the economy even though the government expenditure—but not private investment—is squeezed out. Finally, when the government does not stick to the constant budget policy, the evidence indicates that the expansion of the distribution of consumption vouchers will not squeeze out government expenditures. The policy implication is that the distribution of consumption vouchers will yield a multiplier effect, which will further stimulate effective demand and contribute to Taiwan’s depressing economy. The possible crowding-out effects resulting from the consumption vouchers can be ignored, suggesting that the consumption voucher policy may ultimately be accepted as an effective approach to stimulate the economy.