國際恐怖主義發展與東南亞安全情勢的演化

The Development of International Terrorism and Its Implications on Southeast Asian Security Complex

自2001年911事件爆發後，全球安全情勢丕變，國際恐怖主義威脅與反恐任務推動成為國際安全的迫切議題；新型態恐怖主義影響所及，區域安全情勢亦發生重大變化。根據美國國務院2004年四月發布的《2003年全球恐怖主義形勢報告》(Patterns of Global Terrorism – Annual Report/2003)，自「911事件」發生後，全球面臨一種「反恐鬥爭」與「恐怖主義」同時升級的國際情勢，恐怖活動範圍與反恐行動範圍同步擴大。美國的反恐範圍從打擊阿富汗擴大到了中東、非洲和東亞，反恐目標從打擊恐怖組織和恐怖分子擴大到了所謂「邪惡軸心」（Axis of Evils）國家；與此同時，恐怖主義的活動範圍亦同步擴大，從阿富汗到中東的伊拉克、葉門，再到東南亞的泰國、印尼、菲律賓，構築成「恐怖新月地帶」(Crescent of Terrorism)。然而，面對此一攸關東亞區域穩定與安全形勢的演變，若干問題值得釐清與思索：第一、這種國際恐怖主義的「據點轉移」究係是新型態恐怖主義的具體策略，抑或只是美國反恐思維下對恐怖主義觀感的「焦點轉移」？第二、區在域安全與國土安全的概念下，東南亞有哪些有利於國際恐怖主義活動發展的因素？第三、當全球（美國）觀點將反恐議程聚焦東南亞之際，東南亞國家面對投入反恐鬥爭與追求經濟發展的困境，可能的策略為何？

According to the ''Patterns of Global Terrorism – Annual Report/2004'' launched by the US Department of States, the global society had witnessed the soaring of 'counter-terrorism' and 'terrorism upgrading' simultaneously since the 'September 11 ' in 2001. Followed the Middle-East, Southeast Asia has been the new target of international terrorism which introduced a forming ''Crescent of Terror.'' However, there are some critical questions deserve researchers' rethinking. First, is the notion of 'locus shift' an authentic strategy of international terrorism or just a 'focus shift' of perspective towards international terrorism under the US counter-terrorism thinking? Second, based on the concept of regional and homeland security, what are the factors that benefit the development of international terrorism in the Southeast Asian region? Third, fixed on the hard choice between 'devoting counter-terrorism' and 'pursuing economic growth', what are the potential strategies of Southeast Asian states?