台灣人口移入的區域政治經濟學分析

The Analysis of Regional Political Economy on Taiwanese Immigration

在戰後的東亞地緣政治與區域經濟分工中，日本因為東亞的區域權力平衡成為「亞洲馬歇爾計畫」的首選結盟者以防堵共產勢力的蔓延。透過韓戰的軍需採購，美元被大量地輸入日本。以日本為首的發展國家模型則將發展的動力建立在出口導向工業化之上。台灣與韓國則是被認為成功地複製了日本模式發展而來的後進者。東北亞的發展成就也就成為支持雁行發展模式的堅實基礎。然而，1970年代以來，美國全球金融調控能力的轉弱、貿易赤字的加大、工業能力差距相對於它所援助的西歐與日本逐漸縮短，使得美國的全球霸權統治越來越需要結構性的調整以符合新的情況。這就是1985年廣場協定（Plaza Accord）誕生的政治經濟學理由。這一因應美國霸權危機的升值行動造成了生產要素在東亞區域的跨國流動。它一方面引發了東亞區域一波波的對外投資流動；另一方面則造成勞動力的反向遷移。本文論證台灣過去十幾年來的人口移入現象正反映了這一區域趨勢。它也驗證了台灣在世界資本主義體系作為半邊陲國家的特性。

In the postwar East Asian geo-politics and economic division of labor, Japan turned to be the linchpin of the American Marshall Plan due to the regional power balance. Through military purchase, huge capital was pumped into Japan which built its development on export-oriented industrialization under state guidance. Taiwan and Korea were then seen as the latecomers that successfully emulated Japanese model. The whole developmental experience was thus viewed as the solid evidence for the flying geese model. However, due to weakening global financial regulation, increase of trade deficits, and growing industrial capability of Western Europe and Japan since the 1970s, the American hegemony gradually needs structural adjustment to respond the emerging new situation. This is the politico-economic reason for the birth of the Plaza Accord in 1985. The main purpose of the Plaza Accord was to cope with the dollar crisis. However, the appreciation of East Asian currencies then induced waves of foreign direct investment flowing from Japan, via the second-tier of flying geese, to Southeast Asia and China. By the same reason, it also caused the labor flow in the counter-direction of FDI flow. The author argues that the immigration tendency of Taiwan since the late 1980s reflects this regional transformation. It also demonstrates the formation of Taiwan as a semi-peripheral country in the world capitalist system.