新區域主義及其對台灣發展的影響

New Regionalism Impact on Taiwan's Development

冷戰時期，台灣被西方集團列為反共的前沿，國家安全獲得美國的支持得以保障。另外，在美國「邀請發展」下，台灣經濟享有數十年的優良表現。然而，由於美國柯林頓政府實施「公平貿易」，台灣對美國市場的佔有率逐漸降低。反之，中國大陸自改革開放後，經濟逐漸和世界市場接軌，基於重力理論，台灣經濟成長逐漸依賴大陸。與此同時，全球化浪潮浮現後，新區域主義（new regionalism）成為浪頭，各國追尋地緣經濟的新依歸，台灣在新區域主義之下，必須面對並解決之，否則將可能發生「發展遲滯拖累生存空間」。本文即探討東亞逐漸成型的區域主義、區域內外的競逐情形，台灣有否以及如何參與的空間。最後，本文認為，繞過北京的區域參與將耗盡台灣生存的本錢，利用北京的參與將更可保持台灣的主體性。

After Asian finical crisis, development of East Asian Regionalism have brand new face, with the U.S. preoccupied by the war on terrorism after 911, Japan failure to pursue aggressive economic reform and Southeast Asians concerned with economic recovery, China found new space for increasing its presence and influence among its southern neighbors. Beijing combined diplomacy with promises of expanded trade in an effort to counter Southeast Asian fears that China's economic acceleration would leave them impoverished and with few options for regaining rapid growth. Relief is also widespread in most observers that the U.S. and China appear to be mending relations. The firmer, less ambiguous U.S. commitments to Taiwan's security could lead to another, more serious, Taiwan Strait crisis but do not see this happening in the near term. Therefore, Geoeconomics become the major arena for Taipei and Beijing to struggle.