中國脫離貧窮邁向富裕的關鍵

How Do China Go from Poverty to Prosperity?

在1960年，中國是全球的次貧窮國家，但到了2010年，中國的人均GDP累計成長132倍，從全球倒數第二，演變成全球排行的中位數。總GDP則成長208倍，從全球第八大經濟體（美國的7.7%），成為全球第二大經濟體（美國的74.8%）。本研究追蹤歷年全球最貧窮之十個國家，試圖發掘貧窮國家邁向富裕的關鍵。從結構面與制度面，討論貧窮陷阱假說，且建立可以分辨一個國家是否脫離貧窮陷阱之操作性定義。本研究界定那些國家脫離貧窮？並且探討脫離貧窮的原因與步驟。本研究強調North（1990）制度經濟學對經濟發展分析的重要。漸進式的制度轉移與演化，是貧窮國家脫離貧窮陷阱的關鍵。最後，本研究闡釋鄧小平在中國政治與經濟改革過程中，扮演的關鍵角色。

In 1960, China is the second poorest country in terms of GDP per capita; however, its per-capita GDP has grown by a factor of 132, with its per-capita GDP larger than the median. Its GDP has grown by a factor of 208, rising from the 8th economy (with its GDP being 7.7% of the U.S.'s) to the 2nd economy (with its GDP 74.8% of the U.S.'s). We trace the poorest ten countries over the sample period and try to find factors by which a poor country becomes richer. We examine the poverty trap theory from the perspective of structural and institutional analysis, and establish an operational definition for a country to escape from poverty trap. We identify countries escaping from poverty trap and discuss their patterns. We praise the theory of North (1990). Incremental change and evolution of institutions is the key for a country to grow. Finally, we illustrate that Deng Xiaoping plays a critical role in promoting Chinese economic and political reforms.