實質有效匯率波動對台灣貿易流量的影響──以五個主要貿易夥伴國為例

The Effects of Real Effective Exchange Rate Volatility on Taiwan's Trade Flows: Evidence from Five Countries

台灣是世界上重要的貿易國之一，匯率波動如何影響台灣的進出口貿易一直都是產官學界關切的話題。本文使用ARDL共整合法，並以實質有效匯率波動作為匯率風險之代理變數，探討匯率波動對台灣進口和出口貿易流量的影響。研究對象為台灣五個主要貿易夥伴國:中國、美國、日本、德國、和法國，研究期間為2001年1月至2019年8月。本文發現，台灣對五國的進出口與實質有效匯率，波動和所得皆具有長期均衡關係。在長期，匯率波動對台灣出口的影響皆為顯著且為負向影響，波動上升風險增加時，貿易商傾向降低出口以因應未來可能的財物損失。匯率波動對台灣進口的影響大部分為顯著且為正向影響，當風險增加時貿易商為防止波動加劇所帶來預期可能的財物損失擴大，傾向增加進口作為因應。

Taiwan is one of the most important trading countries in the world. It is a critical issue regarding the impact of exchange rate risks on the trade among officials, academics and practitioners. This paper employs the popular ARDL model to investigate the impact of real effective exchange rate volatility on the trade flows in Taiwan. Five countries, China, the United States, Japan, Germany, and France are investigated. The period is from January 2001 to August 2019. The ARDL bounds testing results show that Taiwan's imports from and exports to the five countries have a long run equilibrium relationship with real effective exchange rate, exchange rate volatility, and income. In the long run, the impact of exchange rate fluctuations on Taiwan's exports is negative and significant. When the risk increase, traders tend to reduce exports in response to possible future financial losses. Most of the impact on Taiwan's imports are positive and significant. When the risk is rising, traders tend to increase imports as a response for future possible losses.