印尼民主鞏固的發展與挑戰──從2014及2019年總統大選的觀察

The Developments and Challenges of Democratic Consolidation in Indonesia: Discussing 2014 and 2019 Presidential Elections

印尼在2004年總統才由全民直接選舉選出，相較於台灣於1996 年實施總統民選、新加坡於1993年全民直選，晚了十年左右。若從 1998年印尼威權體制崩解後起算，印尼民主化發展迄今已逾二十年， 期間實施了多次立法機構選舉地方選舉和四次總統直選。即使如此， 印尼仍面臨社會上各方勢力的挑戰，如：宗教影響、種族差異以及社 會中不同的價值觀等，對於印尼是否「民主鞏固」仍有討論空間。本 文從民主機制的建構、2004年蘇西洛當選首任直選總統至今，來探討 印尼民主發展的歷程，並從 2014年、2019年佐科威及普羅博沃兩組 總統候選人的政策取向，及其所屬政黨聯盟特性在「議題空間模式」 中的變化，來說明印尼民主發展需兼顧經濟與宗教的特殊性。

The 2004 Indonesian presidential election is the first direct presidential election in Indonesia. Compared with Taiwan's first direct presidential election in 1996 and Singapore's first direct presidential election in 1993, Indonesia was late in holding direct presidential election for about ten years. Since Indonesian authoritarian regime collapsed and democratic system started to develop in 1998, Indonesia has maintained democracy for over 20 years, during which legislative elections and local elections were held for many times, and direct presidential election was also held for four times. However, the Indonesian government faces various challenges in the society such as religious influence, racial differentiation and different concepts of values. Therefore, Indonesia's ''democratic consolidation'' is still an issue worth discussing further. The study analyzes the establishment and development of Indonesia's democracy, Susilo's winning the first direct presidential election in 2004, and the recent presidential elections competed by Joko Widodo and Prabowo Subianto in 2014 and 2019. Meanwhile, the study explains that both economic and religious factors play important roles in the development of Indonesia's democracy by analyzing the changes of these two presidential candidates' policies and their alliances' characteristics demonstrated in the ''issue space model''.