航班延誤旅客協助補償成本估算：財務工程之應用

Cost Estimation for Passenger Assistance and Compensation due to Flight Delay: An Application of Financial Engineering

本研究探討航班延誤責任歸屬於航空公司時，對旅客協助及補償費用所花費的成本估算，應用財務工程的方法，假設班機抵達時間符合一幾何布朗運動，將不確定因素以幾何布朗運動的波動率納入考量。對於旅客補償費用方面，針對實務上可行的不同補償機制，分別建構估算模型。為驗證建構模型的正確性，並展示其實用性，本研究設計示範性案例，對不同補償機制、不同變數、不同情狀進行測試，並分析比較之間的變化及差異。提出的方法及模型具實用價值，最後，綜合結論並建議實務上可能的應用方向。

This study investigates the estimation of incurred cost to offer passenger assistance and compensation due to flight delay under air carriers' responsibility. The approaches from financial engineering are applied to model the problem by directly considering the uncertainty. The flight arrival time is assumed to follow the geometric Brownian motion and the randomness of arrival time is represented as the volatility in the geometric Brownian motion. Different possible compensation mechanisms are proposed and formulated as different cost estimation models. The illustrated examples were designed to verify the correctness of the proposed models and also to demonstrate the practicability of the proposed method. Various parameters and different scenarios were analyzed and compared to show how the estimated cost is influenced. Finally, the concluding remarks and the potential applications of the proposed methods are discussed.