英國脫歐對臺灣經貿可能之影響與廠商因應策略

The Impact of Brexit on Taiwan's Economy and the Strategies for Firms

2016 年英國於舉辦公投並決定脫離歐盟 （Brexit），然而雙方的經貿關係談判迄今尚 未達成協議，因此必須持續關注協商內容及談判結果，並事先評估英國脫歐對我國可能 的影響，並擬定因應策略。本文主要目的為利用附加價值貿易分析法，評估英國脫歐透 過貿易的傳遞效果，對我國經濟、產業所造成的直、間接影響。由全球附加價值貿易的 角度來看，我國會受到波及的附加價值不高，此外，即使英國脫歐的衝擊造成歐洲景氣 低迷，對我國產值的衝擊也約僅在 0.0022%~0.0062%的負面衝擊。然而，出口市場重新 分配的效果將大於我國所受到的衝擊，對於此一出口市場重新分配的效果，廠商需儘早 因應，例如熟悉貿易規範、貿易習慣、進出口限制、檢驗標準等。

The United Kingdom held a referendum and decided to leave the European Union (commonly known as Brexit) in 2016. However, the trading relationship between the UK and the EU has not yet reached an agreement. Therefore, it is important to focus on the content and outcome of the negotiations, also to evaluate the possible impact of Brexit. The main purpose of this paper is to assess the direct and indirect impact of the Brexit on Taiwan's economy and industry by the value-added trade analysis method. From the perspective of global value-added trade, the GDP of Taiwan affected was minor. In addition, even the no-deal Brexit plunge the UK into recession, the impact on Taiwan's GDP is only about 0.0022%~0.0062%. However, the effect of redistribution of export markets will be much more significant. Furthermore, firms should respond as early as possible by familiarizing with trading regulations, trading habits, import and export restrictions, and inspection standards.