臺灣國際旅遊貿易的問題與展望

Problems and Perspective on International Trade in Tourism of Taiwan

過往分析臺灣國際旅遊多為單向觀察外籍觀光客來臺入境（inbound）或國人出境 旅遊（outbound）人次，無法充分觀察臺灣與其他國家間整體的旅遊互動情況，需同 時考慮雙向旅遊人次及消費金額才可以更全方面地分析兩國間的國際雙向旅遊差異。 本研究為首篇將以往運用於分析貨品貿易之雙向依賴指數應用於臺灣與 11 個特定對 手國間之旅遊服務業貿易，利用旅遊收入、支出總金額計算出雙向依賴指數，觀察臺 灣與對手國之旅遊服務業貿易緊密程度。再近一步將旅遊貿易型態拆解為水平、垂直貿易型態。由實證結果顯示，2011 年至 2015 年間共 20 季，臺灣與中國大陸之旅遊服務業貿易緊密程度最高|與日本之旅遊服務業貿易緊密程度則是年年降低，代表臺灣與日本間的旅遊服務業貿易緊密程度逐年減少。貿易型態拆解方面，臺灣與特定對手國間以雙向貿易為主，雙向貿易中又以垂直式為主，而垂直式中又以垂直式低品質比例較高，代表臺灣旅遊服務業貿易型態之發展與國際旅遊雙向垂直式趨勢相似，但在旅遊品質上卻仍有相當大的進步空間。

Empirical investigation of Taiwan's international tourism used to focus on one one-way tourism trade, which means previous studies only put emphasize on inbound or outbound tourism to Taiwan. Therefore, the results cannot fully understand the overall tourism interaction among Taiwan and other countries. It is necessary for evaluating the international tourism development in Taiwan in a more comprehensive way to analyze the number of arrivals in two-way tourism trade and the bilateral tourism receipts. This can be the first study explores the trade in tourism service in Taiwan and its 11 partner countries. This study also utilizes the total amount of international tourism receipts to estimate two-way dependency index, the estimated results can explain the interactive level of Taiwan and its partner countries. Besides, the results of dependency index can be decomposed into horizontal and vertical trading patterns for the further investigation in this study. During the observation period between 2011-2015, the dependency index of tourism trade between Taiwan and China are the highest off all. However, the dependency index between Taiwan and Japan is gradually decrease year by year, which means the interactive level of trade in tourism service is decreasing. In terms of decomposition of trade pattern, most of the trade patterns of Taiwan and its specific partner countries are tend to be two-way vertical trade, and the low quality vertical trade is relatively higher. The result indicates the development of Taiwan's trade pattern in tourism service is similar to the trend of international tourism, and there is still considerable progress in the quality improvement of tourism.