A REAL-OPTION PRICING MODEL FOR OFFSHORE ISLAND TRANSPORTATION SERVICE UNDER UNCERTAINTY WEATHER CONDITIONS

不確定天氣條件下離島運輸服務的實質選擇權定價模型

Bad weather situations disturb people's daily schedules, but also cause more costs for travelers. For the offshore island transport system, the weather is one of the major uncertain factors affecting travel services. For example, in Taiwan during fog seasons, the transportation between offshore islands and the main island could be risky. This study values the risk of weather uncertainty by the advantage of real options. We, taking Taiwan's situation as an example, resolve the traffic inconvenience caused by weather in offshore island regions. The low visibility could lead to the shut-down of aircraft and vessel services. We design an option product for the travelers to hedge their travel risk based on Black-Scholes model. In this study, we proposal the computational framework and compute the price of risk.

惡劣天氣會擾亂人們的日常行程，也會給旅行者帶來更多的成本。對於離島運輸系統，天氣影響往往是旅運服務不確定的主因之一。例如，台灣在霧季期間，離島和主島之間常常有運輸風險。本研究通過實質選擇權處理不確定性的特性來評估天氣風險，以台灣為個案，提出解決其離島地區因天氣造成的交通不便的方式，因為低能見度可能導致飛機和船運輸服務的關閉。本研究根據Black-Scholes模型為旅行者設計了一個選擇權產品以對沖他們的旅行風險。本研究提出了計算框架並以收集到的實際資料計算了風險價格。