公允價值與歷史成本之盈餘預測能力：以投資性不動產為例

Predicting Future Performance Using Fair Value versus Historical Cost: Evidence from Investment Property

本研究探討依國際會計準則40號「投資性不動產」，採用公允價值模式衡量投資性不動產是否比採用成本模式衡量投資性不動產對未來盈餘更具有增額之預測能力。本研究特別探討採用公允價值模式之企業，其當期盈餘對未來盈餘的預測能力是否高於採用成本模式的企業。以中國不動產業2007年至2014年為樣本，本研究發現相對於以成本模式衡量投資性不動產，以公允價值模式衡量投資性不動產之企業其盈餘對未來盈餘的預測能力較高。本研究進一步發現，以公允價值衡量投資性不動產之企業，其當期盈餘與未來盈餘的關聯性顯著受其投資性不動產之累計公允價值變動損益數所影響。本研究結果顯示認列投資性不動產之公允價值變動數於損益能提升企業未來盈餘的預測能力。

This study investigates whether reporting investment property at fair value using IAS 40 provides incremental predictive ability for future performance beyond historical cost. Specifically, this study examines whether recognizing incomes under the fair value model can predict a firm's future income more accurately than the historical cost model. Using a sample of Chinese real estate firms from 2007 through 2014, this study finds that reporting investment property at fair value provides better predictive ability for future income than historical cost. This study also determines that the predictability of income for future earnings under the fair value model increases with the size of accumulated changes in fair value gains and losses of investment properties. The results suggest that the recognition of fair value gains and losses of investment property in income statements can improve the predictability of a firm's future income.