中共對外使用武力之動態衝突抉擇模式：以1962年中印邊境戰爭為例

The Dynamic Conflict Decision-Making Pattern for Communist China's External Use of Force: A Case Study of the 1962 Sino-Indian Border War

由於中國崛起以及近年與日本、印度、越南及菲律賓等周邊國家的衝突，有關中共對外使用武力的研究再度引起學界的關注。本文研究問題是：中共對外使用武力的原因眾多，是否可以將諸多原因概念化？中共對外使用武力行為是否變化無常、不可解釋或是僅能靜態分析？如否，何種機制促使中共使用武力？使用武力的最終決策選擇（衝突規模）會受到哪些因素的制約或影響，而呈現動態的衝突抉擇樣式？本文借鑑國際關係領域的預防性動機理論、動態差異理論、聯盟理論及窗戶邏輯、心理學的認知理論、經濟學的展望理論及外交政策分析的多元啟發等相關理論的核心概念，透過將中共對外使用武力原因的概念化過程，以預防性動機為主軸，希冀建構一個「中共對外使用武力之動態衝突抉擇模式」，並且以1962年中印邊境戰爭為案例，採取過程追蹤與類型學等研究方法，用以驗證本模式之適用性。本文透過個案分析，證實了兩個研究假設：（一）中共是出於防止周邊權力地位衰退的預防性動機，而對挑戰其周邊權力地位的國家使用武力；（二）中共使用武力的預防性動機強弱，會影響其最終決策選擇，而呈現動態的衝突抉擇樣式。由此，也初步驗證了本模式的適用性。

Due to the rise of China and its rekindled conflicts with neighboring countries like Japan, India, Vietnam, and the Philippines in recent years, the study on Communist China's external use of force has once again attracted much academic attention. This thesis's research questions are: there are numerous causes for Communist China's external use of force, could all these causes be conceptualized? Are Communist China's external uses of force capricious? unexplainable? or could only be analyzed statically? If not, what mechanism facilitates Communist China's final decision for the use of force? What factors would limit or influence the final decision to use force (the scale of the conflict) to exhibit a dynamic conflict decision-making pattern? This thesis draws on the core concepts of various theories such as the preventive motivation theory, dynamic differentials theory, alliance theory and window logic in international relations, cognitive theory in psychology, prospect theory in economics, and poliheuristic theory in foreign policy analysis. Through the conceptualization of the causes for Communist China's external use of force, the author wanted to construct a ''dynamic conflict decision-making pattern for Communist China's external use of force'' along the axis of preventive motivation. The 1962 Sino-Indian Border War was selected as a case study and was analyzed using both the process-tracing and typology methods to examine the applicability of this pattern. By way of the case study, the two following research hypotheses were verified: First, Communist China's use of force against neighboring countries that challenged its authority and position in the region were caused by preventive motivations to prevent any decline of its regional status. Second, the final decision for Communist China's external use of force was influenced by the strength of its preventive motivations and exhibited a dynamic conflict decision-making pattern. Therefore, the applicability of this pattern was also preliminarily validated.