從四分之一到三分之一？婦女保障席次的選舉效應評估

From One Fourth to One Third: The Electoral Effects of Reserved Female Seats

民主政治的基本原則之一即是實踐政治平等，性別平等即是其一，時至今日，雖然有不少國家已經出現女性的政治領袖，國會中的女性議員亦不在少數，但絕大多數國家的政治權力依然掌握在男性的手上，是以，如何提升女性的政治代表性和政治參與度，也就深為相關團體和各國政府所關注。有鑑於此，為了提高女性參與政治的意願與機會，各國在推展民主化的政治工程中往往會設計不同的制度性誘因，期能達到一定的成效，如婦女保障名額制度即是箇中一例。不過，任何制度的誘因效果不能僅從制度本身加以檢視，尚需考量制度運作的環境系絡，否則可能出現「名不符實」或「忘梅止渴」的現象。另外，任何的制度設計都可能出現「天花板效應」或「地板效應」，效益變化的幅度明顯減緩，此時即是制度趨疲的跡象，需要再次進行制度變革，重新發揮誘因效果。本研究以臺灣縣市議員選舉為例，利用1998年至2010年的選舉資料，以選區為單位，分析婦女保障名額制度的誘因機制是否產生效果的探討，企圖回答幾個理論層次的問題：（1）此一制度是否激勵了女性參選的意願？（2）此一制度是否影響政黨提名的策略？（3）此一制度是否提高了女性當選的機會？（4）此一制度的變革（提高保障席次比例）對女性的參選和當選是否會造成影響？並從中獲得一些正面結論與反思，有助於吾人思考婦女保障名額制度變革所可能衍生的相關效應。

Political equality is one of the core values of democracy, and one facet of this is gender equality. While women are no longer rare in national legislatures and have ascended to leadership positions in many countries, it is still true that most political power is wielded by men. As such, democrats around the world seek to further increase the presence of women in politics. One common strategy is to build incentives into the institutional structure, and Taiwan's electoral system of SNTV with reserved female seats is one such example. There are concerns that this system has not been effective in promoting gender equality. Some worry that it has only created a 'floor effect,' merely guaranteeing a minimum number of women, or, even worse, a 'ceiling effect.' However, there is little empirical evidence supporting these fears. In this paper, we examine city and county council elections from 1998 to 2010, with the electoral district as the unit of analysis. We consider the incentives created by the reserved seat system and look at whether reserved seats have in fact produced (1) more overall female candidate, (2) large parties nominating more female candidates, and (3) more female winners. Finally, we examine a previous reform in the number of quota seats to determine whether (4) increasing the number of reserved seats would increase the number of women elected. In all instances, we find the reserved seat system to be a very powerful spur, and this has important implications for future institutional reforms.