政治情緒與選舉參與：2012年和2016年臺灣總統選舉的經驗分析

Political Emotions and Electoral Participation: An Empirical Analysis of Taiwan’s 2012 and 2016 Presidential Elections

本文從政治心理學的角度探討公民的政治行動是否為個人自由意識和深思熟慮的產物。心理學家指出，有意識的行為至少是心智和大腦交互作用的結果。據此，本研究主張情緒作為一個短期因素，也會影響民眾的政治參與。運用2012和2016年臺灣總統選舉的資料，我們發現選民感受不放心、生氣或有希望等情緒，對其政治參與有程度不等的影響。此外，在不同類型的參與上，情緒的影響也不同，希望促進不需要成本的參與，憤怒則促使民眾參加要付出成本的活動。在當代民主社會中，儘管我們期盼政治行為是理性的，但實際上公民的政治判斷與行為並不能排除情緒的影響。

This study examines whether political actions are a product of mind and deliberation from the perspective of political psychology. Psychologists have demonstrated that human behaviors are the result of an interaction between the conscious mind and unconscious brain. Accordingly, we argue that emotion, as a short-term factor, does affect citizens' political participation. Using data from the 2012 and 2016 Taiwan presidential elections, we investigate the effect of political emotions on electoral participation. The results show that the extent to which individuals attend campaign activities is influenced by political emotions-worry, anger, and hope-in varying degrees. Further analyses suggest that political emotions have diverse effects on different types of electoral participation. Feeling hopeful motivates involvement in low-cost activities, while anger stimulates costly forms of participation. In contemporary democracies, we hope that citizens' political actions are driven by careful consideration, but in practice, their political judgments are not completely immune from feelings.