請與我做朋友：臺灣民眾對於美國與中國之間的盟友選擇偏好

Please Be My Friend: The Taiwanese Public's Ally Preferences between the United States and China

本文藉由分析我國民意調查資料，旨在檢視臺灣民眾對於美國與中國兩者之間，結盟國家的選擇偏好。本文驗證一般民眾在選擇國家結盟對象的兩個研究假設：首先為對於美國與中國認知的「雙歧」（ambivalence）；態度，其次為評估兩個國家何者更具影響力。研究結果顯示，臺灣民眾選擇中國作為盟友的比例（41.7%），與支持美國作為盟友的比例（44.5%）；頗為接近。依據實證資料，泛藍支持者與傾向中國統一者較偏好選擇與中國進行結盟，與此同時，認同自己為臺灣人與支持臺灣獨立者較不偏好選擇中國為結盟對象。本文採取「勝算對數模型分析」（logistic regression analyses），統計數據顯示，保持雙歧態度的民眾較傾向選擇中國作為結盟對象；相關數據證實，另一項研究假設亦具有相當解釋力，亦即一般民眾判斷哪個國家更具影響力的認知，是左右他們選擇結盟對象與否的重要考量。

This study takes advantage of Taiwan public opinion data to examine citizens' views on whether their country should ally with the United States or China. It tests two hypotheses on how citizens arrive at their choice of an ally: ambivalence toward both the US and China, and an evaluation of which of the two countries is the more powerful. The results reveal that the proportion of the Taiwanese public that would pick China as an ally (41.7%) is almost the same as the proportion that would opt for the US (44.5%). Pan-Blue supporters and those favoring unification with China have a higher probability of choosing China, while Taiwan independence supporters and those identifying as Taiwanese only are less likely to choose China as an ally for Taiwan. Logistic regression analyses show that more ambivalent citizens are more likely to choose China, and that judgement of which country is most powerful is a conditional predictor of choice of ally.