利用單相關與正向逐步迴歸分析茶樹芽葉性狀與產量之關係

Study of the Relationship between Yield and Succulent Shoot Characteristics of Tea (Camellia sinensis) by Single Correlation and Forward Stepwise Analysis

以1985及1986年由青心烏龍（父本）與台茶12 , 13 , 14 , 15 , 16 , 17（母本）雜交之實生後裔所選育之72個優良個體，於1994及1995年春、夏及秋三季茶之芽葉性狀及產量，進行相關與正向逐步迴歸分析。結果顯示各季茶芽性狀與產量間之相關性略有不同，因此較不宜全年合併分析，在試驗時亦不宜以單季茶作為重複來進行統計分析，春茶之當季茶芽性狀間與當季產量之相關性不佳與全年產量之相關較佳。夏茶與秋茶兩者相關性較佳，其中夏茶之表現尤佳。與全年產量相關較佳之因子為第一節間徑、第二節間徑、百芽重、第三葉寬，第一節間長、第二葉寬、第三葉厚、第二葉厚；其中葉厚為主要負相關因子，葉長則在某些季節呈現負相關。以正向逐步迴歸分析法分析之結果，對當季產量貢獻度較大之因子依序為第一節間徑，第三葉厚、百芽重、第二節間長、第二節間徑及第一節間長。對全年產量之貢獻度較高者則依次第一節間徑、百芽重、第三葉厚、第二節間長弓第一節間長及第二節間徑與第二葉長；兩者之各季預測方程式除1994年春茶對當季產量之預測方程式可信賴度偏低外，其餘均極高。

The correlation and stepwise analysis of 72 tea seedlings yield between young shoot (one bud and 3 leaves) characteristics were studied during 1984 and I 985. The correlation of current season's yield to young shoot characteristics in spring tea was poor and inferior to other season; while summer tea was the best. Internode diameter, I 00-buds-weight, leaf width, 2nd internode length, 3rd leaf length and 3rd leaf area, showed significant positive correlation to current season's yield. Summer tea showed the best correlation to yearly total yield, while those of Autumn tea showed the worst. Internode diameter, I 00-buds-weight, 3rd leaf width and 2nd internode length showed significant positive correlation, while leaf thickness showed the negative correlation to yearly total yield. Following by the result of stepwise analysis 2nd intemode diameter 100- buds-weight, 3rd leaf thickness, 2nd leaf length, 2nd and 3rd intemode length showed more contribution to yield.