應用修正式德爾菲法及層級分析法探討臺灣旅館選址因素

A Research on Location Selection of Taiwan Hotels Based on Modified Delphi Method and Analytic Hierarchy Process

本研究以修正式德爾菲法（Modified Delphi Method, MDM）與層級分析法（Analytic Hierarchy Process, AHP）分析旅館業者、政府單位與專家學者對旅館選址指標及優先順序。研究結果如下：（1）旅館選址評估指標是由四大構面與九項評估準則及二十九項次準則所建立。（2）經層級分析法分析，專家整體評估認為以「對外交通」、「產業未來」、「對內交通」、「觀光吸引力」、「成本開銷」、「交通便利」、「政策因素」、「土地成本」、「旅遊資源」為優先考慮。（3）不同屬性旅館評估準則為「交通便利」、「商圈型態」、「旅遊資源」、「土地成本」及「發展趨勢」、「交通可及性」與「政策因素」為優先考慮。（4）臺北市以投資都市商務型旅館最佳，其次為連鎖型旅館、度假休閒型旅館；高雄市以投資連鎖型旅館為最佳，其次為都市商務型旅館和度假休閒型旅館；臺中市以投資度假休閒型旅館為最佳，其次為都市商務型旅館及連鎖型旅館。

In this study, Modified Delphi Method (MDM) and Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) were used to analyze hotel location, priority index and priority for hoteliers, government agencies and experts. The results of the study are as follows: (1)The hotel location evaluation index is established by four major facets, nine evaluation criteria and 29 sub-criteria. (2)As indicated by AHP, the experts gave priority to the following factors: ''external traffic'', ''industry future'', ''inbound traffic'', ''sight attraction'', ''expenditure'', ''convenience in transportation'', ''policy factors'', ''land costs'' and ''tourism resources''. (3) Hoteliers give priority to ''convenient transportation'', ''business district type'', ''tourism resources'', ''land cost'', ''development trend'', ''traffic accessibility'', and ''policy factor''. (4) For Taipei City, the best investment is in business hotel, followed by chain hotel and holiday leisure hotel; For Kaohsiung City, the best investment is in chain hotel, followed by urban business hotel and holiday leisure hotel; For Taichung City, the best investment is in leisure hotel, followed by urban business hotel and chain hotel.