自有率、空屋數量與住宅市場調整

Ownership Rate, Vacancy, and the Adjustment of Housing Market

偏好購買住宅的消費模式，使得國內住宅市場運作情境具有其於傳統住宅經濟理論的背景。台灣近十年餘年來住宅供給的大量增加，高達82%住宅自有率以及17%空屋率，使得住宅市場陷入嚴重供過於求的困境。本文修改自然空屋率構成因素的理論基礎，建構自有率、空屋數量與住宅價格的聯合估計模型。研究發現，購屋補貼政策具有穩定房價的效應，但是將會使得空屋問題持續擴大或延續。

In Taiwan, people are encouraged to buy more houses to meet their current and future need. During the past two decades, the oversupply of houses and the preference of houses buying turns out be the result of 85% ownership rate and 17% vacancy rate. This paper revised the theory of natural vacancy rate by adding the influence of ownership rate to build a multiple regression equation model of ownership rate, vacancy, and housing price. By the empirical test, we find the homebuyers' subsidy policy could stable housing price level, but it will enlarge the oversupply problem.