台灣地區住宅供給彈性之估計

An Estimation of the Elasticity of Housing Supply in Taiwan

在住宅市場上，房價的高低應同時取決於住宅的供給與需求雙方面。也就是說，除了需求面因素外，供給面的決定亦是不可或缺的因素。然而，雖然國內對於住宅需求面的研究很多，但對於住宅供給的研究卻很少，因此，本研究的主要目的，使在於正確的估計台灣地區住宅供給彈性。在實證結果方面，我們利用民國79至85年，台灣地區23個縣市別資料，估計長短期住宅供給彈性。實證結果發現，長期住宅供給彈性約為1.2965，短期住宅供給則全無彈性。而影響長短期住宅供給的最主要因素，分別為房價、地價、與勞動工資。短期房價完全取決於需求面因素，但長期房價則受供給面因素影響較大。

In the housing market, housing demand and housing supply determine housing price simultaneously. In the past, the empirical evidence on the housing supply is far less than that on the housing demand. In this study, we estimate the long run and short run elasticity of housing supply in Taiwan using the pooling data of 23 counties from 1990 to 1996. We find that the elasticity of housing supply in the long run is about 1.2965, and in the short run housing supply is perfectly inelastic. The most significant factors affecting long run and the short run housing supply are housing price, land price, and wage. In the short run, housing prices are determined by demand -side factors only, however, supply-side factors are more important in the long-run.