考慮不確定價格因素下，跨時選擇模型的房屋需求

Intertemporal Housing Demand Under Price Uncertainty

本文建立一個考慮、價格不確定性因素，遺贈動機，和預期重出售下的跨時房屋需求模型。自有房屋的需求主要取決於（一）可利用的非資本所得（祖先的遺贈金額加上恆常所得減掉最低遺贈限值），（二）單位擁屋成本（當期房價加上預期的單位使用者成本），（三）預期重出售房價，（四）遺贈函數在效用函數的權重。我們發現預期未來價格上漲對目前房屋需求的影響取決於個人非資本所得是否變的有能力承擔兩項預期的任務支出：（一）負擔子孫的預期購屋價格的一定比例，（二）負擔個人淨預期單位擁屋成本的一定比例。對於具有高額的非資本所得及低遺贈動機的個人而言，當預期未來價格上升時，其目前的自有房屋需求會增加。反之，對於具有低額的非資本所得及高遺贈動機的個人而言，當預期未來價格上升時，其目前的自有房屋需求會減少。

This paper establishes an intertemporal housing demand model considering the price uncertainty, bequest motives, and resale of housing. The owner-occupied housing demand is determined by (1) the disposable non-capital income, (2) the unit cost of owning a house, (3) the expected resale price, (4) the weight of bequest function in the utility function. The effect of expected future housing price growth on housing demand depends on whether the individual's non-capital income can afford the following expected expenditures: 1) a certain proportion of the expected offspring's future purchase price of housing, and 2) a certain proportion of expected unit cost of owning a house. If the future housing price is expected to rise, the owner-occupied housing demand of an individual with a high non-capital income and a low bequest motive would be increased. On the other hand, the owner-occupied housing demand 'of an individual with a low non-capital income and a high bequest motive would be decreased.