不動產價格與經濟循環

Real Estate Prices and Economic Cycles

有關房地產價格與一般經濟現象結合的研究已有長期的歷史。它起始於一連串表列式對建築及價格成長的研究，同時伴隨著一連串對整體經濟活動的研究。最近則有較多的研究使用系統化的模型進行有關投資者對房地產興建、住宅價格與辦公室租金循環現象的預測研究。這些模型一般均足以反映經濟基礎因素和經濟衝擊所造成的價格變動現象。然而，幾乎很少或可說甚至沒有關於反向因果關係的研究－－亦即探討房地產市場變動導致經濟現象變動之效果。本文首先探討經濟基礎和房地產價格之間的關聯，然後再說明房地產市場變動對其整個經濟體系影響間之可能因果關係。針對前一個問題，本文利用美國41個都會區的15年資料為基礎，結果我們的確發現經濟基礎與房地產價格在長期下有明顯的正相關。至於第二個問題，本文利用亞洲幾個主要城市最近幾年的資料為例，雖然我們無法證實經濟基礎與房地產價格泡沫之間的關係，但我們至少希望激起學者的思考及辯論。

Studies of the linkages between real estate prices and general economic conditions have an extensive history, beginning with tabulations suggesting long swings in construction and price development synchronized with long swings in aggregate economic activity. More recent studies have explored the implications of systematic models of investor expectations upon real estate construction and the cyclical behavior of housing prices and office rents. Models such as these are able to generat patterns or price change over time in response to varying conditions in economic fundamentals and in economic shocks. There has, however, been little of changes in peroperty markets upon resulting economic conditions. In the first part of this paper, I will focus on the question of the linkages between economic ' fundamentals' and property prices. In the second part, I will focus on the question of the potential for a causal role between outcomes in the property market and their subsequent effects upon the overall economy. Applying a data set from 41 cities in the US in 15 years, we do fine a positive impact of economic fundamentals on property prices. Using a data set from several Asian cities in the past few years, though we could not reach a couclusion of the effect of real estate prices on economic fundatmentals, however, l hope to have stimulated a bit thought and controversy---what an international conference of scholars is all <~bout.