房地產真實交易價格之研究

A Study of Real Estate Transaction Price

通常研究房價最重要的是真實房價的取得，但最困難的卻也是真實房價的取得，有鑑於此，本研究乃商得太平洋房屋公司的同意，提供近三年來（77～79年）真實交易價格資料（一共29,225筆，其中4,004筆成交），以這些資料配合國內房地產現況，探討影響房價的重要因素。檢討傳統特徵價格理論在國內的適用用性後，以多變量數量化理論I類（First Family Theory），建立以總體和個體影響因素為主的各種時機、區位、類型等次市場之數量化I類模型，藉以說明近年來影響台北都會區房地產價格的主要因素及其影響程度。

Collecting the 'real' transaction real estate price is the most critical issue of real estate price research, and it is also the most difficult part of research in Taiwan. Many bias of real estate price research many come from the 'not real' transaction price. In order to correct this bias, we asked for the Pacific Rehouse Company to provide their real transaction price (from 1988 to 1990, 29, 225 observations in total). Real estate price in Taiwan has its special formation background, for example, land shortage, high population density, high priority of owner occupancy, and highly speculative real estate demand, etc... What are the important factors of real estate price in Taiwan? Can the traditional attributes of hedonic price explain real estate price formation in Taiwan? We build real estate price models of Taiwan, especially focus on timing, building type, and location these three factors. In this empirical study, we found that using the real transaction priceversus listing price in the models, the explantory power (adjusted R2) from 80 % drop down to only about 40 %. This result support our previous concern about the bias of not real transaction price.