不動產估價的另類選擇：模糊實質選擇權模型

A Study on Alternative Methods of Real Estate Valuation: Fuzzy Real Option Model

本研究旨在提倡模糊實質選擇權模型在不動產估價的適用性，因此我們修改以往研究所提的選擇權評價模型與模糊實質選擇權模型，建立新的不動產抵押選擇權模型與擴展版模糊實質選擇權模型（Et-FROV模型）。實證結果顯示Et-FROV模型可以縮小誤差幅度與提高估值的準確性，此先進模型可以解決估價失真問題。更重要的是，我們不僅可以準確估計標的資產之保本價值（即保本93%），還可以獲得其增值利潤（即增值84%），此為我們的主要貢獻。因此，這個先進模式可以提供美國暨其他國家之另類參考。

This study aims to promote the applicability of a fuzzy real option model in real estate valuation. To this end, we have modified the option pricing model and the fuzzy real option model proposed in previous studies to create a novel real estate mortgage option model and an extended fuzzy real option model (Et-FROV model). The empirical results show that the Et-FROV model can reduce the error margin and improve valuation accuracy. Moreover, the advanced model can solve the problem of valuation distortion. More crucially, we can not only accurately estimate the underlying asset's hedging value (i.e., capital preservation at 93%), but can also derive its value-added profit (i.e., added value at 84%), which is our principal contribution to the literature. Hopefully, this advanced model can provide an alternative reference for the United States and other countries.