不動產特銷稅有效性之實證研究：對短期交易與所得的衝擊

The Effectiveness of the Excise Tax on Real Estate Trades: Impact on Short-Term Trades and Income

台灣房市供過於求，但是房價自2003年起持續上漲，原因之一是台灣不動產交易的稅負太輕，以致於投資人在房市短進短出；持有的稅負也偏低，造成民眾囤房囤地。特銷稅自2011年6月實施後，各界所關注的重點之一，即特銷稅是否抑制了房屋投資（投機）的需求，以及特銷稅的納稅人是否是屬於高所得或高財富者。本研究實證結果發現房市的短期交易確實增加投資人的所得與財富，而特銷稅的實施明顯減少了短期交易與其交易所得，對高短期交易頻率者影響尤其顯著，同時特銷稅的繳納者的所得與財富也相對較高，因此特銷稅確實有達到量能課稅的目的，但是由於特銷稅的閉鎖期只有兩年，一戶多屋者仍可延長持有期間規避稅負，相對地影響了特銷稅抑制房價的效果。

In Taiwan, the housing price has been escalating quickly since 2003 in spite of there being an over-supply of housing. One of the main reasons for this phenomenon is the serious underestimation of real estate prices by the government. This results in the taxes either on short-term trades or on holding real estate being very low. Since the inauguration of the new excise tax on short-term real estate trades in June 2011 by the Taiwan government, an inquiry has been made into the effectiveness of this new tax. This paper answers the question by examining the impact of the new tax on short-term real estate trades and income (or wealth). The empirical results show that, first, short-term real estate trades have significantly contributed to the income and wealth of their traders. Second, the new excise tax has significantly reduced short-term real estate trades and their gains, especially for high frequency traders. Third, those traders who are paying the new excise tax have higher income and are wealthier. This implies that the new excise tax complies with the principle of taxing based on the ability to pay. Finally, because the tax is applicable only to trades with a holding period of less than two years, wealthier traders have become better at prolonging their holding period to evade the tax. This has curtailed the effectiveness of the new excise tax.