英文摘要 |
In measuring housing affordability, the price-to-income ratio(PIR) is the index in the literature that is mostly used to measure the 'pressure' of the real housing price on household income. However, the application of the PIR index is limited. Gan & Hill(2009) provide a concept of estimating the housing affordable limit and compute the affordability of individual households. In this study, the housing affordable price for a given household income is empirically estimated based on the assumptions of the ratio of living expenses and mortgage parameters. The estimated affordable price is then compared with the real price for the current housing unit to calculate the price gap. The cumulative probability of the price gap for each household is estimated according to the probability distribution of all collected individual housing prices. The cumulative probability, referred to as the ”affordability risk index”, has a percentage ranging from 0% to 100%. The household has less housing affordability risk when the index approaches 0% and, conversely, the risk is high when the index approaches 100%. We adopt empirical data for the cities of Taipei and Kaohsiung in 2008, and compute the affordable risk index for households based on different income levels. Our findings show that the household with the lowest-income level has the highest affordable risk as expected in both cities. Yet, in Taipei city, households at the highest-income level are found to have an affordable risk that is higher than that for the households at other income levels. |