住宅負擔能力與住宅自有率之長期關係──追蹤資料共整合分析應用

Long-term Relationships between Housing Affordability and Homeownership Rates: An Application of Panel Cointegration Model

本文透過追蹤共整合模型檢視住宅自有率的影響因素，發現住宅自有率與家戶所得、遷徙率、老年人口比率、有偶率等變數具有長期共整合關係，但與房價、家戶變動率、租金成長率沒有整合關係，住宅自有率與房價所得比的均衡關係亦僅在台北縣存在。然而，若將時間趨勢納入住宅自有率模型時，則會得住宅自有率與房價、房價所得比、租金成長率等變數間都有整合關係的結果。此外，從共整合向量可發現，老年人口比率與有偶率等人口屬性變數的影響大於房價與所得，但不同都市住宅自有率的最重要影響變數不同。

This paper uses the panel cointegration model to investigate the determinants of long-term homeownership rates for four cities in Taiwan. The results show that a long-run equilibrium relationship exists between homeownership rates and household income, the percentage of married couples, the percentage of elderly people, and mobility rates. No long-run cointegration relationship is found to exist between homeownership rates and house prices, changes in the number of households, or rental costs. In addition, homeownership rates and the house price-to-income ratio are cointegrated only in Taipei County. However, if we consider long-term trends in the model, then all variables are cointegrated with homeownership rates. Furthermore, the results of the cointegration vectors show that the influences of the percentage of elderly people and the percentage of married couples on homeownership rates are more significant than that of house prices and household income. However, the most important variables influencing homeownership rates differ in each of the four cities.