先前租買經驗對自住者購屋搜尋行為之影響──存活分析之應用

Effects of Prior Renting and Buying Experience on the Homebuyer's Search Behavior-The Application of Survival Analysis

依據相關研究發現，先前經驗來自於過去購買、試用或試吃的體驗，且經驗確實會影響搜尋期間。購屋搜尋者雖無試用機會，卻可能擁有租屋經驗，且租屋經驗似乎可替代部分先前購買經驗，而延伸至購屋搜尋上，但以往卻少有研究討論，更遑論深入分析兩種經驗個別對購屋搜尋行為的影響。本文藉回顧經驗與搜尋行為之相關文獻、分析房屋市場現況，利用「台灣地區往宅購屋需求動向調查」92年第一季至93年第一季已購屋者與尚在搜尋者之資料，透過存活分析法，去探討購屋經驗、租屋經驗，對預售屋、成屋購屋搜尋行為的影響。研究結果顯示，就購買成屋部分，相對於無經驗之購屋搜尋者，租屋經驗與搜尋期間為正向關係，購屋經驗與搜尋期間為負向關係，假說一獲得支持。而仲介服務則有助於提升中度經驗者之經驗水準，縮短其搜尋期間。就購買預售屋部分，僅購屋經驗有顯著負向影響，假說二同樣獲得支持，但租屋經驗似乎難以延伸至預售屋之購買。本文主要貢獻在於，釐清先前租屋經驗確實可延伸至本次的購屋搜尋，而購屋經驗對購屋搜尋期間之影響為負向，租屋經驗對搜尋期間影響為正向，且兩者對預售屋、成屋之購屋搜尋期間影響不同，故在進行分析與研究結論的引用時，應予以分別討論。

In housing markets, the searching conditions of house buying are similar to those of house renting. Therefore, this reveals the experience of house renting may extend to that of house buying. However, there is little literature discussing the matter. This paper focuses on the influence of house buying and renting experience on a homebuyers search behavior. The data acquired from ”Taiwan Housing Demand Survey” includes the homebuyers and the home searchers from the time of 2003Q1 to 2004Q1, using survival analysis to study the homebuyer's search behavior. The results show that the two hypotheses are supported. The influences of prior house buying on search duration, and which of prior house renting experience on search duration are different. When a house renting experience buyer purchases the pre-sale house or existing house, he would has longer duration than non-experience buyer and house buying experience buyer. And only the house buying experience would have positive relation with a pre-sale house homebuyer's search duration.