九二一地震災後個別住宅重建動態資料分析及其成果檢討

The Dynamics of Reconstruction of Independent Residences and Evaluation on the Achievement of Recovery after the 921 Earthquake

九二一震災發生之後，官方發布的重建統計中，一直缺乏詳細而可信賴的時間序列住宅復建資料。因此，災後以來的重建累計動態過程，以及復建速度和政府政策之間的互動關係，仍缺乏客觀的數據可供參考。官方與民間提出的各種重建數字存在相當大的差距，也使得重建工作成效之檢討，因數據有誤而評估不易。本研究針對災後復建的三年期間，重新整理中央銀行的九二一緊急貸款原始資料，並自行收集受災最嚴重的台中縣與南投縣建築執照與使用執照的時間序列資料，詳細觀察並釐清震災後個別住宅的動態復建狀況，對照政府的重建方案評估住宅重建政策以及重建成果。本研究的主要發現是，個別住宅的重建大多發生於地震後的一年之內，全國總計的全倒住宅一年內重建比例介於20%到38%之間，災後三年累計的重建比例則大約在35%至45%之間。重建速度和災後補助政策的高度相關，不僅反映政府重建政策的有效性，同時也凸顯災後政策的即時性與應變性的重要。本研究的主要貢獻，是由未曾公開發佈的官方原始資料再經整理分析，還原了地震災後重建資料的缺損，具有很高的史料價值之外，亦可供未來相關研究及災後重建政策評估之用。

The 921 Earthquake invokes a lot of studies on issues of the impacts and recovery from the disaster. Analyses on the dynamics of housing reconstruction and the post-disaster re-construction policy evaluation after the earthquake, however, are not enough. Since updated and detailed housing-rebuilt related data is the fundamentals to understand the accomplishment of recovery, the purpose of this project is to retrieve the time series statistics after the quake to restore the dynamic patterns of housing repair and reconstruction. Main finding of this study indicates that a substantial portion of collapsed independent residences started reconstruct within a year. The rebuilding rate of the whole nation within a year is in between 20% and 38%, and the rate of accumulated reconstruction in three-year period are from 35% to 45%. Peak of rebuilding in associated with the announcement of favorable government subsidies denotes the effectiveness of policies in encouraging reconstruction in hit area. Contribution of this study is that we collect the official but unrevealed after-quake statistics to formulate the dynamics of recovery speed. These statistics not only suffice the lack of historical records but also provide the basis for policies evaluations and suggestions.