台灣地區空屋狀況變遷與原因分析

An Analysis of High Housing Vacancy Rates in Taiwan

本研究透過台電用電不足底度戶數資料推估各縣市歷年的空屋率以彌補每十年一次住宅普查的不足，發現三次住宅普查時各縣市空屋率雖已明顯偏高，但大多並非該縣市空屋率的最高峰，且在過去二十年間各縣市空屋率均有相當明顯的波動趨勢。就房價與空屋率聯立模型的實證結果來看，房價是影響空屋率最重要的變數，但其對於空屋率的影響為負，且在1990年之後房價仍呈現穩定上升的趨勢，應不是造成1990年之後空屋率大幅上升的主因。遷徙率的相對影響力在1990年之後較家戶所得與住宅充裕度為低，且其水準值在1990年之後大效呈現小幅下降的趨勢，至於住宅異質性的水準值在1990年之後雖呈現上升，但其係數值與相對影響力相當小，故本文推測1991～2001年間國內住宅市場空屋率大幅上升的現象，並非由於自然空屋率上升所造成，家戶所得的增加使得其更有能力負擔住宅閒置成本或購置第二屋，加以政府宣告實施容積管制引發建商搶建，造成各縣市的住宅供給充裕度明顯上升，可能才是造成空屋率大幅上升的主因。

The study used 1980, 1990, and 2000 housing census data and under minimum use of electricity data of Taiwan Power Company to clarify the high vacancy rates phenomenon in Taiwan. We found that vacancy rates fluctuated dramatically during 1980 to 2001. Though vacancy rates were quiet high in three housing census, they still were not the peaks for most cities. The empirical results revealed that the determinants of vacancy rate by their relative influence were house price, household income, house stock to household ratio, mobility rate, lagged vacancy rate growth, and house price dispersion. Since the influence of house price was negative and mobility rate and house price dispersion did not increase during 1991 to 2001, which implied the growth of vacancy rates after 1990 were not caused by natural vacancy rate. The rise of household income makes household more affordable to hold a vacant house or a second home and the growth of housing stock to household ratio caused by zoning control announcement were the two main causes of high vacancy rates.