縱火再犯因子及預測之研究

Recidivism Factors and Prediction of Arson

本研究目的為找出與縱火再犯有關的因子，並建立縱火再犯預測工具，供實務單位參採，期以降低國內縱火再犯率。以問卷調查為方法，調查對象包括監獄中縱火罪及非縱火罪受刑人共計六百三十位。研究結果顯示，多元犯罪、暗中攻擊、衝動攻擊、自卑不滿、幼時玩火經驗、其他與火有關經驗、對火態度、縱火行為、縱火功能等變項，與縱火再犯行為有關，是為縱火再犯因子。將這些變項進行對數迴歸分析，發現多元犯罪、對火態度、縱火行為三項，Wald值較高達顯著差水準，故以之建立縱火再犯預測表。此一工具的信度（內部一致性係數）為.76，效度（預測正確性）為79.3%。最後，本研究就自評與他評量表、靜態與動態再犯因子、貫時性與橫斷面預測研究、研究結果在實務上的應用、以及未來研究方向等進行討論。

This study attempts to find the recidivism factors of arson, and to establish a prediction instrument for arson recidivism. Questionnaire was used, and arson inmates and non-arson inmates (totaling 630 inmates) were compared. The results showed that criminal versatility, indirect attack, impulsive attack, inferior resentment, childhood fire-play, other experiences with fire, attitude toward fire, fire-setting behaviors, and fire-setting function were related to recidivism of arson. They are arson recidivism factors. With these factors as independent variables and first-time arsonists or repeated arsonist as the dependent variable, logistic regression analysis showed that criminal versatility, attitude toward fire, and fire-setting behaviors had higher Wald values and reached significant differences. Therefore these three variables were selected as predictors to establish a prediction instrument for arson recidivism. The instrument showed a reliability (Cronbach alpha) of .76, and validity (prediction accuracy) of 79.3%. Finally, the self-appraisal and othersappraisal questionnaire, static and dynamic recidivism predictors, longitudinal and cross-sectional prediction research, the practice of the prediction instrument of arson recidivism, and future research directions were discusseds.