天然災害與核電廠災變之複合型災害疏散路網重建模型之研究

A Compounded Disaster Evacuation Network Reconstruction Model for Natural Disaster and Nuclear Power Plant Accident

核電廠災害常常是因為颱風、地震等大規模天然災害所誘發的複合型災害。複合型災害常面臨兩個議題：一是核電廠災害疏散的特性，必須在疏散路徑規劃中，先考量輻射塵清洗點選擇，再進行疏散路徑選擇，與一般災民疏散方式不同；二為天然災害所造成的路網破壞，如何進行道路緊急修復，以滿足民眾的核電廠災害緊急疏散需求。針對前述問題，本研究建立雙層規劃模型，下層問題為核電廠災害民眾疏散模型，上層問題則是系統最佳化的緊急路網重建模型。由於本研究模型之可行解空間具有非凸性質且為非線性混合整數規劃問題，故運用模擬退火法及梯度投影法發展求解演算法，並以數值範例驗證模型的特性與正確性，最後提出結論與建議。

Nuclear power plant accidents are often induced by typhoon, earthquake and other large scale natural disasters. The compounded disasters caused by natural disasters and nuclear disasters often face two issues. Firstly, how to choose a decontamination radiation dust position and evacuate victims from the radiation pollution area to the safety area. Secondly, the road network damage caused by natural disasters, how to carry out road emergency repair to meet the victims' emergency evacuation demands of nuclear disasters. For the above problems, a bi-level programming model are formulated. The lower level problem is an emergency evacuation model for nuclear power plant accident victims. The upper level problem is a system optimal emergency network reconstruction model. For the practical consideration, the lane-repair based and road repair human power limitation constraints are considered in the upper level problem. The proposed model is a mixed integer and nonlinear programming problem. The simulated annealing method and gradient projection algorithm are employed to develop the solution algorithm and verified its accuracy using a numerical example. Finally we set out our conclusions and recommendations for this study.