國軍軍官晉任停年及服役年限之變革對軍官退休俸未來給付影響之估計模型

An Estimation Model for Evaluating the Impact of Changing Officers' Minimum Time in Grade and Maximum Time in Service on Officers' Future Pension Payment

近年來軍人退撫基金財務收支逐漸失衡而有破產之虞，國防部遂有延長服役年限之規劃以改善此一情形。但服役年限應該延長多久？基金之財務是否因此而獲得改善？迄今尚缺乏一個用來設計人力政策同時可以評估其對軍官退休俸未來給付有何影響之模型。本研究參酌Alam（1985）的穩定狀態生涯結構模型，考慮各階級退損率，建構了一個MSSCSM模型。本研究根據此一模型結合各階級人力成本，建構了另外一個人力資源財力規劃模型，亦即軍官退休俸未來給付估計模型（EMMOFPP）。透過MSSCSM模型設計不同的晉任停年及服役年限政策，其所產生的結果輸入EMMOFPP模型，則可估計出這些人力政策對每年新退休軍官之退休俸未來給付所產生的影響。此外根據本研究的MSSCSM及EMMOFPP理論模型，我們亦可瞭解所設計的各階級的晉任停年、服役年限、編制數、留營策略等人力政策在財力限制下是否可行，以及要落實這些人力政策，需要多少財力來支援。同時亦可根據本研究的理論模型，設計不同的退休給付政策，了解這些政策會減少或增加多少軍官退休俸未來給付。本研究假設少校至上校的現役最大年限均延長4年，少將延長2年，少尉及上尉晉任停年各自延長1年。研究結果顯示，校官及少將服役年限的延長並配合尉官晉任停年的拉長，提高了大部分階級的晉升機會，例如少校晉升中校由52.8％提升為55.9％，中校晉升上校由46％提升為50.3％。但軍官退休俸未來給付並未因此而減少，反而增加了0.29％。 To avoid failure of the current servicemen pension fund system, the Ministry of Defense intends to increase the service time required for retirement. However, how long should the service time be extended? Could this extended service time improve the financial situation of the pension fund system? Until now there has not been a model which can be used to evaluate the impact of this change on the future payment of the officers' pension. The current study refers to Alam's (1985) steady state career structure model, and considers the wastage rates of each grade to construct a Modified Steady State Career Structure Model (MSSCSM). Combining the MSSCSM with manpower costs of each grade, a human resource financial model, i.e. an Estimation Model for Military Officers Future Pension Payment (EMMOFPP), is established. By using the MSSCSM, we can evaluate policies with different time in grade for promotion, and service time for retirement. The policies' results are then inputted into the EMMOFPP to estimate the impact of these policies on the future pension payment for new retired officers every year. In addition, according to the theoretical models of this study, we can also understand whether the newly designed manpower policies that vary each grade's minimum time for promotion, maximum time for retirement, established numbers, and retention strategies are feasible under financial constraint and how much financial resource is needed to implement these manpower policies. Meanwhile, based on the current study's theoretical models, we can design different retirement payment policies to understand how future pension payment for officers may be affected. The current study proposes that the maximum service time of retirement for major to colonel should be extended 4 years, and 2 years for major general. Minimum time for promotion of second lieutenant and captain should be extended 1 year. The results indicate that the extensions of service time for retirement in Field Grades and Major General, and the extensions of time in grade for promotion in Company Grades will increase most ranks' promotion prospects. For example, the promotion prospect of major to lieutenant colonel increases from 52.8% to 55.9%, and of lieutenant colonel to colonel from 46% to 50.3%. However, the future payment of the officers' retirement pension has not been reduced. In contrast, it has been theorized to increase 0.29%.