| 中文摘要 |
隨著社群媒體融入吾人生活，成為粉絲、按讚這類網路行為已被證實與實體行動間存在關聯，因此透過候選人臉書的大數據來預測選舉結果，便成為新興研究主題。本文分析2016年區域立委選舉中354位候選人的粉絲專頁經營狀況，發現是否運用臉書與選舉勝敗有顯著關聯，實質經營者36.8％當選立委，無臉書或未實質經營者則僅1.2％。更重要的是，候選人的貼文按讚總數與得票數呈現低度正相關，註冊粉絲數與得票數更達中度正相關，因此兩者均可據以探討勝選關聯性。而本研究建構一初步模型「淨粉絲對比率」，整合候選人按讚數與粉絲數，並排除與同選區對手的無意義重疊粉絲和重複按讚，具有一定推估能力，對全國當選席位的預估準確率有81.5％（72席中59席），在六都更達87.9％（48席中42席）。而這也意味臉書選戰的重要性，以及專業經營的必要性。
The adoption of social media in political marketing has grown dramatically over the past ten years, as it creates two-way communication that stimulates and fosters candidates' relationships with voters. However, can the count of “supporters” and “likes” recorded on the Facebook page of a candidate predict whether he/she will win the elections or not? In view of this, predicting an electoral outcome using “big” social media data is a new research topic that has emerged due to the exponential growth of social media. This study examines the extent to which political candidates' use of Facebook fan pages and interaction with their supporters are related to the election outcomes (vote share and election success) of Taiwan's 2016 legislator election campaign. Facebook data were acquired for all 354 candidates. The findings indicate: a candidate's Facebook presence is related to his/her election outcomes. Positive correlations were also observed to exist between the numbers of supporters/likes candidates secured on their official fan pages and their popular vote share. Moreover, the “net-fans ratio” preliminary model, based on a candidate's likes/supporters and excluding those repeated with respective opponents, has an explanatory power to forecast regional legislators' election outcome with 81.5% accuracy of all the seats, and with 87.9% accuracy of the seats of 6 major municipalities. Hence, Facebook data could be a significant indicator of electoral success. |
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