21世紀印度與東協經貿互動之研析（上）

India-ASEAN Economic Relations in the 21st Century(Part I)

儘管印度早在1992年即已開始推動以東協為目標的東望政策（Look East Policy, LEP），但是雙邊經貿互動直到本世紀初因雙邊自由貿易協定簽署始漸趨活絡。印度－東協自由貿易協定（India-ASEAN FTA，簡稱AIFTA）歷經5年的協商後終於在2009年簽署，與新加坡、馬來西亞、汶萊、緬甸與泰國5國的協定先行於2010年1月開始生效。但是，印度的貿易強項是服務業，更何況當時區域內的商品關稅已相當低，所以印度並未能從雙邊FTA獲得多少利益。問題是印度既然明知簽署商品FTA不會有重大經貿獲利，但又為何要與東協簽訂自由貿易協定？而直到2014年9月印度才與東協簽訂服務業貿易協定與投資協定。這兩項協議已於今年（2015）7月1日正式實施。未幾，印度又發現難以從服務業貿易協定獲利。 The India-ASEAN FTA for goods was signed in 2009 and took effect (trade in goods) with 5 (Singapore, Malaysia, Brunei, Myanmar and Thailand) of the countries and India in January 2010. However, India was keen on the services deal as it did not gain much from the pact on goods due to already lower tariffs in the region. Here comes the question. Why India entered into this agreement expecting no significant gain? India did not sign the agreements in services and investment until September 2014. The two agreements came into force on July 1, this year (2015). Again, India later acknowledged that gains on the services front had not accrued. Against this background, the author is determined to explore FTA-centered India-ASEAN economic interactions in depth and to find out true reasons behind scene. It is natural to start looking into India's motivations and goals first, followed by ASEAN's perceptions of India and response and finally examining their bilateral economic relations and predicting future interactions.