使用MaxEnt模擬氣候變遷對東方蜜蜂潛在分布之影響

蜜蜂是顯花植物重要的授粉昆蟲，也是生態系中不可或缺的關鍵物種，並有助於建構地球陸地生態系的完整性。然而，近代蜜蜂族群急劇減少，已成為一個眾所矚目的生態問題。本研究針對臺灣原生的東方蜜蜂，欲瞭解氣候變遷對該物種之影響，方法乃運用最大熵物種分布模式「MaxEnt」，以及代表濃度途徑（representative concentration pathway）2.6（暖化減緩）和8.5（暖化加劇）兩種氣候情境，模擬物種的時空動態變化。研究結果顯示，氣候因子提供了重要的貢獻，為主導模式推演之關鍵要素；從物種分布模擬的結果發現，東方蜜蜂偏好溫暖氣候，適宜棲地面積可能受暖化影響而增加，此外，無論是現時或2070年代兩個未來氣候情景下，擴張的適宜棲地均分布於人為足跡不明顯處，為因應氣候變遷，本研究認為這些區位宜適度規劃物種保育的策略。 Bees are the most important pollinators of flowering plants and essential ecological keystone species contributing to the integrity of most terrestrial ecosystems. However, drastic declines in bee populations have become an ecological issue which has recently garnered much attention. Here, we assessed the potential effect of climate change on the geographic range of Apis cerana in Taiwan. The spatiotemporal dynamics for this species were examined with representative concentration pathways 2.6 (warming mitigation) and 8.5 (warming intensifies) climate scenarios, using the MaxEnt program for species distribution modelling. Results showed that the climate factor provided a great contribution for our model. Since A. cerana prefers warmer habitats, the range of suitable habitat may expand because of a warming climate. Furthermore, both for the current as well as for the two future climate scenarios of the 2070s, the suitable habitats were concentrated in regions where the human footprint was scarce. In order to manage this species' response to climate change, we suggest that these regions should design appropriate strategies for this species' conservation.