Earthquake Occurrence Probability of Taiwan Faults Over the Next 50 Years

Earthquake Occurrence Probability of Taiwan Faults Over the Next 50 Years

Time-dependent probability model are considered because studies of paleoseismic records on well-studied faults in Taiwan have found them to be technically defensible characterizations of the timing of earthquakes. Although time-independent earthquake occurrence behavior characterization requires only an assessment of the mean recurrence interval(Tr) for a given magnitude, this study considers the elapsed time since the previous earthquake(Te) in timedependent probability model for the 25 major faults in Taiwan. For faults with a long paleoseismic record and a documented most recent event, time-dependence can be incorporated into probabilistic seismic hazard analysis using an alternative models to account for the active fault rupture cyclic characteristics from the present time up to a particular lifetime(such as for the Chelungpu fault). The conditional probability in the next subsequent time windows(Tp) corresponds to a renewal model with the coefficient of variation of the recurrence interval. The Taiwan earthquake probability map for the 25 major faults in the 50-year periods from 2017 to 2067 is developed in this study.