台灣國家公園遊客人數影響因素之分析

An Analysis of Influencing Factors on Visitor Numbers of National Parks in Taiwan

近年全球戶外旅遊人數增長，人們進行自然生態遊憩之意願提高，各地自然遊憩地區規劃的重要性增加，其中又以國家公園為主。文獻指出遊客人數影響因素研究對經營管理與規劃之重要性，本研究以台灣的三個國家公園為研究對象，利用次級資料，進行多元迴歸模型探討國家公園遊客人數之影響因素，提供國家公園更多管理與規劃參考。其結果顯示，國家公園遊客人數受收入、國家總人數、老年人數、入境人數、氣候變遷以及是否有舉辦宣傳活動等因素影響。本研究建議相關管理單位針對不同因素，制定合宜因應管理政策，例如國家公園管理單位在進行遊憩規劃時，可以考量老年人口的數量和相對應需求，以老年人口為客群，做相關客製化園區規劃。其次，進行國家公園遊憩人數模型預估之探討，可將氣候因素與特殊事件納入變數參數，更準確的去預測遊客人數，另外，亦可收集更詳細遊客資料，結合電子化、人工智慧等設施，提高國家公園相關管理單位之管理效益。 The sustainable perspective has risen broadly owing to the rapidly increasing outdoor recreation populations recently. The more people are willing to spend time on outdoor recreation, the more significant the management of recreation area would be, especially for the national park management. This research investigates the affecting factors on visitor count in the three earliest national parks in Taiwan. Assessing and inventing more accuracy visitor counting model to offer the other outdoor recreation manager a more efficient and effective governed methodology. According to the results, visitor count would be affected by income, the national population, the national elder population, arrivals, climate change, and the events held by the national parks. Based on the results, this study recommends that the related managers should develop different the strategy management under diverse environment and conditions, which could elevate the manage utility. It is suggested that the authority of National Parks should consider the number of elders and their needs when make tourism planning. The elders need to be taken into consideration to customize the park zone and to explore and visitor count model. Weather and special events can also be included in the model. This improves the estimation accuracy. Additionally, visitors' detailed data can be collected, with the aid of electrical and AI facilities, to improve the management efficiency of the authority of the National Parks.