本省酪農對政府協助淘汰不良乳牛計劃反應的計量分析

An Econometric Analysis on the Dairy Farmers’ Response to the Taiwan Government’s Subsidy on Milk Cow Selective Slaughtering Project

為提高本省酪農產業的邊際生產力，政府藉由補貼來加速不良乳牛的淘汰率。由於農業補助計劃，往往帶來生產上的扭曲。為評估此一計劃的合理性，在農民對補助計劃的質性反應資料後，我們以Probit, Logit, Weibull與Mscore對此一問題做質性反應分析。而在酪農對政策的正面反應下，我們提出Age-Structure-Population model來解釋這淘汰乳牛計劃的經濟衝擊。 To increase the marginal productivity of the Dairy industry, Taiwan government has been using subsidy to speed up the selective slaughtering rate of milk cow. But subsidy to the dairy farmers usually creates production distortion. To make a proper judgement, we have conducted a survey and collected qualitative data from dairy farmers. Using Probit, Logit, Weibull and Mscore model, we analyze the farmers’ qualitative response. The dairy formers overall show a positive response toward the replacement project. We also use an Age-Structure-Population model to analyze the economic impact of this project.