世界鮪罐原料漁獲市場結構及價格共整合之分析

Analysis of the Market Structure and Price Cointegration of the Tuna Raw Material Markets for Tuna Canneries in the World

本研究蒐集及分析世界鮪罐原料漁獲國際市場結構，探討各國鰹鮪圍網產業與各國際市場間的關係，尤其針對象牙海岸阿必尚/塞內加爾達卡、波多黎各、西班牙威各、日本清水、日本燒津及泰國曼谷等六個國際冷凍正鰹鮪罐原料漁獲市場交易價格進行ADF單根檢定，實證結果顯示皆具單根，並進一步以誤差修正模型進行共整合分析來瞭解世界鮪罐原料主要漁獲價格互動的關係，結果顯示，六個國際市場間確實存在著穩定之長期關係。 This paper examines the price linkages of the frozen skipjack tuna market for canneries across six different countries in the world- Abidjan in Cote d’Ivoire/Dakar in Senegal, Puerto Rico, Vigo in Spain, Shimizu in Japan, Yaizu in Japan, Bangkok in Thailand. An augumented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test for the statistics of each of the price variables is conducted. Results show that six price series of skipjack market in the world are all integrated in degree one, i.e. I(1). An error-correction model for analyzing the linkages between six countries is specified to identify the efficiency of the import market. The empirical results confirm the market cointegration hypothesis.