影響台灣菸酒稅收因素之研究

A Study on the Determinants of the Tobacco and Alcohol Tax Revenue in Taiwan

本研究主要探討影響臺灣菸酒稅收之因素，研究期間為2002至2016年。以平均每人所得、非農業比、教育程度、2006年調增菸捐政策、2009年調增菸捐政策及2013年調高酒駕罰金政策等為自變數，利用多元線性迴歸模型，檢測影響菸酒稅收之因素。主要實證結果如下：在菸稅部分，平均每人所得及2009年調增菸捐政策呈顯著負向影響，表示隨著所得的提高，國人對於健康養生概念愈注重，因此對菸品消費減少，每人所得愈高菸類稅收愈少。而2009年菸捐調整及菸價上漲幅度較大，菸類稅收亦顯著減少。非農業比、教育程度呈顯著正向影響，表示非農業比愈高，經濟發展程度愈高，商業活動熱絡，則菸類稅收愈多。而教育程度較高者可能消費較高價位菸品，導致菸類稅收顯著增加。在酒稅部分，非農業比對酒稅呈正向顯著影響，表示非農業比愈高，工商業發達，商業應酬及酒類消費較多，因此酒稅愈多。而平均每人所得、教育程度及2013年調增酒駕罰金則對酒稅沒有顯著影響。由於菸捐之調升對菸稅收入呈負向影響，目前政府及民間亦積極宣導菸害防制，可預知未來菸品之消費量將日益減少，菸稅收入亦隨之降低。2017年修法雖將調漲菸稅部分作為長照基金財源，但未來在菸稅收入逐漸減少情形下，長照基金可能必須另謀其他財源。 This research mainly discussed the factors affecting Tobacco and Alcohol Tax Revenueand the research period was from 2002 to 2016. The independent variables were income percapita, non-agriculture ratio, education background, policy of increasing Health and Welfaretax in 2006, policy of increasing Health and Welfare tax in 2009 and policy of increasingdrunk driving fines in 2013; Multiple Regression Analysis was used to test the factorsaffecting Tobacco and Alcohol Tax Revenue. The main empirical results are shown as below:In terms of Tobacco Tax, income per capita and policy of increasing Health andWelfare tax in 2009 have the negative effect. Namely, with the increase in income, people paymore attention to the health concept and their consumption in tobacco decreases. So, thehigher the income per capita is, the less the Tobacco Tax Revenue will be. In 2009, Healthand Welfare tax was adjusted and the cigarette price increased sharply, so the Tobacco TaxRevenue also decreased significantly. The non-agriculture ratio and education backgroundhave the significantly positive effect. It means that the higher the non-agriculture ratio is, thehigher the economic development level will be. Thus, the commercial activities will heat upand the Tobacco Tax Revenue will increase. The consumers with higher educationbackground may consume the expensive cigarette, causing the Tobacco Tax Revenue toincrease significantly.In terms of Alcohol Tax, non-agriculture ratio has the significantly positive effect. Itmeans that when the non-agriculture ratio is higher, the industry and commerce is developedand the consumption in social engagement in commerce and alcohol is higher. So the AlcoholTax is higher. The income per capita, education background and the drunk driving finesincreased in 2013 have no significant effect.