選制變遷對投票參與的影響：以台灣立委選舉為例

Effects of Electoral System Change on Voter Turnout: The Case of Legislative Elections in Taiwan

選舉制度是否影響投票參與，一直深受國內外學者所關注，而選舉制度改革是否對投票參與造成影響更是頗多爭論。本研究以台灣立委選舉為分析對象，探討選制變遷對投票參與之效應。在方法上，本研究採「準實驗設計」，以鄉鎮市民代表選舉為比較組，評估選制變遷對立委選舉投票率之影響。此外，本研究進一步以「台灣選舉與民主化調查」TEDS2008L針對TEDS2004L成功樣本之定群追蹤資料，分析台灣同一群選民在新舊選制下投票參與的穩定與變遷。研究結果發現，雖然選制變遷對總體投票率並沒有產生顯著的影響。不過，個體選民對新舊選制的主觀評估及他們的個人特徵，則顯著影響他們投票參與的穩定與變遷。尤其是評估新選制比舊選制更讓人不想去投票的選民以及小黨支持者，都比較傾向在舊選制下有去投，但新選制下不去投。本研究認為透過上述結合總體與個體層次的分析，讓我們對選舉制度變遷如何影響國會選舉投票率以及個體選民的投票參與，都有更深入的瞭解。 For a long time, scholars both at home and abroad have paid close attention to the effect of electoral systems on voter turnout. However, the effect of these changes in the electoral system on participation in voting has not been conclusive. This study investigates the influence of electoral reforms on voter turnout by analyzing legislative elections in Taiwan. We first adopted a quasi-experiment design with township councilors as the control group to assess the effect of electoral reforms on voter turnout. Then we used panel data from the TEDS2008L to analyze the stability and changes in voting participation for the same voters under different electoral systems. The research results show that electoral system changes did not significantly influence the turnout rate but significantly affected the stability and changes in the voting behavior of individual voters. As regards the willingness to vote, those who considered the new electoral system to be more discouraging for voting compared to the old electoral system, as well as small-party supporters, had a higher probability of deciding not to vote under the new electoral system. We hold that the aforementioned analysis at the macro and micro levels can help us to understand more about the effect of system changes on the turnout rate and voting behavior of individual voters.