「城市診脈」動線系統之模擬與預測──一種基於空間型構理論動線區段分析之都市空間結構研究

“Urban Diagnosing” The Simulation and Forecast of City Circulation - A Study on Urban Spatial Structure Based on Segment Analysis of Space Syntax Theory

「城市診脈」係指一種城市動線系統之模擬與預測模式，正如同為一座城市把脈之意涵，故以此為名。隨著台中市的都市擴張與產業經濟發展等種種因素，中區區域商圈歷經盛衰，正當台中大車站計畫（鐵路高架化）執行之際，區域動線將大幅改變，與車站及鐵道緊臨連結之中區，究竟其空間結構將會如何變遷？英國倫敦大學Bill Hillier教授所創可量化空間資訊且預測空間行為分佈之空間型構理論（space syntax theory）。本文藉由空間型構之動線區段分析方法（segment analysis），以台中市現況動線結構模型與實際觀測值，進行不同形式代步載具之流量觀測比對；進而探討台中鐵路高架化前後，對中區整體與區域空間結構之影響。執行實地觀測值與軟體預測分析比對時，透過分析參數NACH值（可表示不同移動半徑交通載具移動選擇度），其空間結構具備型構智慧性（將可有效預測行為分佈）可有效預測「汽車」與「機車」之分佈狀態與傾向，而慢速移動載具「自行車」與「步行」由於受車站釋放人流之影響而難以預測；在台中鐵路高架化前後空間結構變遷中顯示，空間整體型構智慧性與「汽車」之路徑選擇值顯著提昇；然而，對於地區性相對便捷度，以及「自行車」與「步行」之地區性參數NACH值卻是下降。基於上述初步發現，提高台中市中區區域之動線結構便捷度與慢速移動載具之使用率（「自行車」與「步行」）將成為未來城市空間再造之關鍵課題。 “Urban diagnosing” means the simulation and forecast model of a city's circulation system. Just as it is diagnosing for a city, so this is the topic title. Because of Urban Sprawl of Taichung city and other reasons, Taichung central district once was bustling and flourishing before, but nowadays it’s not. While Taichung City Government announced the Taichung elevated railroad project, how the spatial structure will be changed, especially the adjacent central district? Found by UCL Professor Bill Hillier, space syntax theory which can forecast behavioral tendency of spatial use, was manipulated in this research. Segment analysis of space syntax was applied to discuss on the spatial changes of Taichung city circulation, comparing the nowadays axial line model within the on-the-spot observation in different transportation tools in order to discuss the city circulation’s spatial changes because of Taichung elevated railroad project’s influence. The analysis and comparison result shows in bigger scale (car and motorcycle usage) it can be adequately forecasted, but it is hard to forecast on the usage of bicycle and pedestrian because of the crowd released at the station. Even the analytical value of integration and choice of car usage increased, but the same one of low radius decreased. Based on this paper’s finding, increase the local value of integration and choice (bicycle and pedestrian usage) is the key factor of urban spatial redeveloping.

“Urban diagnosing” means the simulation and forecast model of a city's circulation system. Just as it is diagnosing for a city, so this is the topic title. Because of Urban Sprawl of Taichung city and other reasons, Taichung central district once was bustling and flourishing before, but nowadays it’s not. While Taichung City Government announced the Taichung elevated railroad project, how the spatial structure will be changed, especially the adjacent central district? Found by UCL Professor Bill Hillier, space syntax theory which can forecast behavioral tendency of spatial use, was manipulated in this research. Segment analysis of space syntax was applied to discuss on the spatial changes of Taichung city circulation, comparing the nowadays axial line model within the on-the-spot observation in different transportation tools in order to discuss the city circulation’s spatial changes because of Taichung elevated railroad project’s influence. The analysis and comparison result shows in bigger scale (car and motorcycle usage) it can be adequately forecasted, but it is hard to forecast on the usage of bicycle and pedestrian because of the crowd released at the station. Even the analytical value of integration and choice of car usage increased, but the same one of low radius decreased. Based on this paper’s finding, increase the local value of integration and choice (bicycle and pedestrian usage) is the key factor of urban spatial redeveloping.